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Maria Siow
Maria Siow
Senior Correspondent, Asia
Maria Siow is a long-time China-based correspondent and analyst with keen interest in East Asia. Maria has a masters degree in international relations.

Singapore’s incoming prime minister is bracing himself for years of geopolitical unpredictability, as experts warn that heightened US-China tensions don’t leave much room for manoeuvre.

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New Delhi isn’t ‘overly concerned’ by the development, analysts say – unless Dhaka decides to grant access to Chinese warships and submarines.

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Of the three Aukus aspirants, New Zealand would likely find it easiest to slot into the pact’s security framework – and all would face opposition from China.

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Emerging alliance expected to undertake more maritime exercises and provide greater security help to the Philippines in its South China Sea claims.

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In this week’s issue of the Global Impact newsletter, we look at how Asian nations have been making moves with an eye on the ever evolving relationship between China and the United States.

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Madagascar, Ivory Coast and Nigeria were first on the itinerary for Tokyo’s top diplomat this week, as she also sought to push Japan’s Indo-Pacific strategy in Sri Lanka and Nepal.

With wars raging in Ukraine, the Middle East, an emboldened North Korea, and the coming US presidential election, it is prudent Seoul not get involved in a potential Taiwan crisis, one expert said.

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Washington is concerned about India’s ‘slide into illiberalism’, but it ‘doesn’t weaken [US-India ties], much less impact its future trajectory’, analysts say.

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Only 14.2 per cent of respondents were confident India would ‘do the right thing’ and contribute to global stability, while 30.5 per cent had ‘little confidence’.

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China has pledged to develop the Colombo International Airport and Hambantota port, and play a ‘positive role’ in Sri Lanka’s debt restructuring.

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India’s foreign minister said New Delhi agrees with the Philippines ‘upholding its national sovereignty’ in the waterway, prompting China to call for ‘third countries’ not to ‘interfere’.

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A new survey shows rising regional acceptance of the US-Japan-Australia-India grouping that’s been derided by Beijing as an anti-China ‘tool’. More tangible, visible projects will be needed to strengthen ties with Asean, however.

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South Korea is one option, observers say. But the Vietnamese military is stuck in its ways, which may make continued covert purchases from Russia more attractive – despite the risks.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit comes amid a tilt by New Zealand towards US and Australian defence policy, and concerns that Wellington could join Aukus.

The port in Batanes could facilitate rapid troop deployment and serve as a transit point for supplies and evacuated Filipinos in the event of a conflict.

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Despite the Quad members’ different positions on some issues, the bloc is committed to boosting regional security to counter China’s influence.

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Manila and Canberra’s interests are ‘intertwined’, President Marcos Jnr said in remarks seen as a subtle message to China it has the West’s security support if needed.

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Strained bilateral ties and attempts to exclude Beijing from discussions could further complicate efforts to conclude a regional code of conduct, analysts say.

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Analysts expect Canberra’s growing security and defence ties with neighbouring nations to be the focus of the summit with Southeast Asian leaders.

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‘Tangible’ takeaways from a potential Japan-North Korea summit, especially on the abduction issue, are required if Kishida hopes to use foreign relation wins to boost his domestic approval, analysts say.

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