Almost every nation in Southeast Asia is internally split between those favouring Beijing and those preferring Washington. If conflict does erupt, internal politics and assumptions of fealty are likely to force the hand of regional leaders.
As the Sweden example shows, Beijing’s way of dealing with criticism is eroding its soft power. China needs to avoid alienating other countries and learn how to influence people if it is to cement its place at the top.
In recent years, the US has been withdrawing from the international system, while China has been taking on a greater role. Covid-19 has heightened this trend, with China’s pledges of assistance standing in stark contrast to American isolationism.
From fibre-optic cables to health care connectivity in emerging markets, China’s digital silk road enables the country to gain both influence and commercial benefit. The US has been making headlines opposing Chinese firms worldwide but offers no comparable programme.
There is an upside for Britain in working more closely with its traditional allies – the US, Australia and Japan – in the region. Free-trade agreements with all three countries all hang in the balance.