How China can best counter the US-Japan-South Korea alliance
The US-Japan-South Korea pact is a result of geopolitical polarisation amid tensions from Ukraine, North Korea, the East China Sea and the Taiwan issue
If China can signal peace, or even broker it, the 21st century will belong to China and Xi’s statesmanship will be globally venerated
If Beijing wants to effectively counter the US alliance with Japan and South Korea, and secure China’s status as a pre-eminent power on a par with the United States, it must first understand the four main factors that enabled the US to forge the trilateral alliance.
First, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has catalysed geopolitical polarisation, dividing the world and invoking acute military competition. China’s announcement of its “no limits” friendship with Russia just before the start of the conflict, and the Sino-Russian military exercises and strengthened security cooperation since then, serve as a catalyst for the US to develop its trilateral alliance in Asia.
Second, as a result of the geopolitical polarisation, the US has taken the initiative to promote a rules-based international order among liberal democracies, with the aim of containing China.
Third, North Korea’s renewed threat of armed provocation has triggered greater security collaboration between the US, South Korea and Japan. Faced with a common and terrible military threat, Japan and South Korea are setting aside their historical antagonism and reaching for strategic cooperation.
Fourth, Beijing’s assertive policy towards Taiwan and in the rest of the East China Sea has heightened tensions and altered the threat perceptions of South Korea and Japan.
Should China wish to achieve its strategic objectives and become a globally respected world power, these issues must be resolved.
First, Beijing can play an active role in resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict by becoming an impartial mediator, bringing the two parties together and convincing them to implement a durable ceasefire and to negotiate for peace.
Such a bold move would enhance China’s image and help turn it into a respected power in the international community. Letting the war drag on would only aggravate global polarisation and continue to affect China’s economic and security interests.
Second, to counter the rules-based order advocated by US President Joe Biden, China must establish credible foreign policies based on the guiding principles introduced in the Global Civilisation Initiative last year: peace, development, equity, justice, democracy and freedom.
President Xi Jinping’s speech in San Francisco last year underscored the significance of the guiding principles in China’s foreign policy – namely, mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation. These core values should be the basis of a coherent foreign policy to help Xi jointly build a world with “lasting peace, universal security and common prosperity”.
In fact, if Chinese foreign policy is to be credible, the principles enunciated in the Global Civilisation Initiative and Xi’s San Francisco speech need to be embodied in China’s domestic policy. As former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev once noted, foreign policy is a continuation of domestic policy, which is, in turn, an embodiment of ideology.
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Third, Kim Jong-un radically altered North Korea’s policy towards South Korea last year, reclassifying it as North Korea’s main enemy and threatening to use nuclear weapons to subjugate and integrate the South. The more Kim threatens a nuclear attack, the more the trilateral alliance will be strengthened.
China is the only country with sufficient economic and political leverage over North Korea to push it towards denuclearisation and establish permanent peace and stability on the Korean peninsula. To consummate the deal, Beijing must establish a strategic partnership with Seoul to jointly make Pyongyang an offer it cannot refuse, providing it with a distinctly better chance of survival without its nuclear weapons.
Such a deal must include security guarantees, the lifting of sanctions, a peace treaty between the two Koreas, and sufficient funds for North Korea’s economic modernisation.
In return, Kim’s regime must revise its Juche ideology of self-reliance, undertake market-oriented reforms, and achieve sustained and dynamic economic development, thus contributing to peace and economic prosperity on the peninsula. This would lead to the withdrawal of US troops from South Korea as there would no longer be a justification for their presence.
People walk along a street near the Arch of Triumph in Pyongyang, North Korea, on March 25. In return for security guarantees and a lifting of sanctions, Kim Jong-un’s regime must be persuaded to undertake market-oriented reforms, and achieve sustained and dynamic economic development in North Korea. Photo: AFP
Fourth, reunification with Taiwan will require a conducive political and economic environment. Beijing must seek economic integration, followed by peaceful political integration, thus winning the hearts of the Taiwanese people.
If Beijing attempts reintegration by using military force, North Korea is likely to follow suit, which would not only lead to acute instability but also contradict the core principles of Chinese foreign policy enunciated in the Global Civilisation Initiative.
The 21st century will belong to China if Xi can grasp the opportunity. China has lifted 800 million people out of extreme poverty in just four decades. Between 2008 and 2022, its per capita gross domestic product rose by 267 per cent, helping to push up the global per capita income.
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Since the Belt and Road Initiative was announced in 2013, China has invested over US$1 trillion in infrastructure in more than 140 countries. Such success lends credibility to China’s economic model as a foundation for other developing countries. Unfortunately, this immense economic success has not been translated into strategic leverage.
Should Beijing wish to achieve its strategic objectives, enhance its leverage and counter the US-Japan-South Korea alliance, its foreign policy must firmly adhere to the core values advocated in the Global Civilisation Initiative.
Xi has the chance to leave the finest possible legacy by facilitating the end of the conflict in Ukraine and denuclearising the Korean peninsula, while simultaneously achieving China’s economic and political goals. Such an achievement will surely secure his global status as a venerable statesman.
Chan Young Bang, PhD, is the founder and president of KIMEP University, the principal investigator in its DPRK Strategic Research Centre, and a former economic adviser to Nursultan Nazarbayev, the first president of Kazakhstan
