Hong Kong protests have dented EU-China ties, but the threat of global recession will prevent Europe from pressing Beijing further

EU-China ties are already strained by South China Sea tensions, Xinjiang detentions and 5G security concerns. So the European Union is unlikely to spend much political capital pressing Beijing on Hong Kong, with a recession on the horizon

Emanuele Scimia

Published: 2:00pm, 10 Sep 2019

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German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s exhortation that the crisis in Hong Kong should be resolved through peaceful means, and within the existing constitutional framework, provoked a sharp response from Chinese Premier Li Keqiang during their meeting in Beijing last Friday.

Li warned the West not to interfere with the city’s (and so China’s) affairs. The anti-government protests gripping Hong Kong come as relations between Europe and China are already strained over everything from territorial disputes in the South China Sea to Beijing’s mass-internment policy in the western Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, as well as trade and investment, and 5G technology.

The European Union, faced with a gloomy economic outlook, and therefore the need to boost trade with its second-largest trading partner, is terrified by the idea of dealing with a China that might suppress Hong Kong’s unrest in the same way it did the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989.

Merkel’s tirade about Hong Kong adds to other European voices that have expressed concern about the authorities’ handling of the situation. Britain, the city’s former colonial master, has been loud and clear, for instance.

In a speech in the House of Commons on September 3, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said his country stood firm “in upholding Hong Kong’s way of life, guaranteed by one country, two systems”.

The British government has repeatedly emphasised that China must respect the 1984 Sino-British Joint Declaration, which ensured Hong Kong a high degree of autonomy for 50 years after its return to Beijing’s rule in 1997.

In its latest six-monthly report to Parliament on Hong Kong, released in March, Britain’s Foreign Ministry noted that the city’s high degree of autonomy was being reduced as far as civil and political freedoms are concerned.

Parliament seems ready to support the rights and liberties of Hong Kong’s citizens. In a cross-party effort, some British lawmakers have called on their government and other Commonwealth countries to offer Hongkongers who hold a British passport the right of citizenship and abode as an “insurance policy”.

The EU is on the same page. Federica Mogherini, the bloc’s foreign policy chief, said on August 29 that the developments in Hong Kong were extremely worrying, and that the EU expects local leaders to respect “the freedom of assembly, expression and association, as well as the right of the people to demonstrate peacefully”.

The EU and China’s shared dislike for US President Donald Trump’s aggressive commercial approach notwithstanding, this is certainly not a good moment for China-Europe relations, and Hong Kong is only the tip of the iceberg.

A recent statement by Britain, France and Germany on the South China Sea situation angered China’s foreign ministry, which dismissed the “unwelcome remarks” by countries which are not in the region. The three European powers expressed worry about growing tensions in the region and urged all claimants to comply with a 2016 arbitration ruling that China has never accepted.

Meanwhile, China has called on the Council of Europe to withdraw the nomination of Ilham Tohti for a prestigious human rights prize and to stop backing separatist and terrorist forces. A jailed Uygur scholar, Tohti was convicted of ethnic separatism by a Chinese court in 2014 – an accusation questioned by Western and human rights groups.

EU institutions and member countries have several times lashed out at China for the mass detentions of Muslim Uygurs in political re-education camps in Xinjiang, for which EU leaders say there are credible reports.

That said, it is doubtful that Britain and the EU will spend political and diplomatic capital to press China on the Hong Kong turmoil.

Britain seems unable to go beyond public statements. The Johnson cabinet, eager to conclude a post-Brexit free trade deal with China, is in a complete shambles and failing to deliver Britain’s exit from the EU, in what has become a national drama.

The EU is in no better position. Amid fears of a global recession, European leaders hope the finalisation of the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment with China by the end of next year will serve as a backstop against the looming storm.

China and the EU held the last round of negotiations in July. They focused on investment liberalisation, and it is understood that those discussions advanced. However, the EU pointed out that efforts would have to be intensified to make “more tangible progress”.

The security of 5G broadband networks, of which Chinese telecom giant Huawei is a world leader, is another potential source of tension between the EU and China. Pressured by the US, European leaders are considering whether to exclude Chinese tech companies from building the continent’s 5G communications systems.

An EU-wide risk assessment on 5G technology is under way and will be completed by October 1. Its findings, along with the results of talks on investment later this month in Beijing between EU and Chinese negotiators, will gauge the state of EU-China affairs, particularly if they have been influenced by events in Hong Kong.

Emanuele Scimia is an independent journalist and foreign affairs analyst

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