Coronavirus challenge offers an opportunity to learn from history and ease into post-pandemic new normal

Responses to crises like the Spanish flu, Y2K and HIV provide a road map for adapting to life in a world beset by Covid-19
Disruption to the global economy opens the door for important reforms such as reskilling, improving working conditions, and focusing on health care and social security

Samir Nazareth

Published: 10:45am, 30 May 2020

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Some experts argue against the precautions taken to contain Covid-19. They claim millions die from flu and tuberculosis every year, so why this global fear? There is also an economic argument, a Trumpism that goes: “The cure cannot be worse than the problem.”

It is important to disabuse this notion. A recent paper titled “Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu”, by economists Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck and Emil Verner, found fewer deaths in cities implementing early and aggressive interventions and faster economic growth after the pandemic.

The paper also indicates that non-pharmaceutical interventions, besides lowering mortality, may mitigate the adverse economic consequences of a pandemic.

Humankind has long been plagued by epidemics that have decimated populations. Over the past few months, there have been stories about how some people made something positive out of the outbreaks. Mentions of Shakespeare and Newton have been made, challenging us to make the best of a bad thing.

There is enough modern-day inspiration to keep social media and the publishing industry in business. However, the past is a repository of experience one must tap to live with Covid-19.

Lessons from the Spanish flu cannot be ignored. The first is the value of social distancing. It breaks the chain of infection and reduces the pressure on the health care system. The other lesson is the danger of letting down our guard, resulting in a greater spread of the virus in the second wave. Countries are reopening economies and borders without stamping out the virus or having fail-safe detection and cures available.

In this scenario, the economy and the people remain susceptible. Having said that, Hong Kong’s Secretary for Food and Health Professor Sophia Chan Siu-chee recently told a radio programme, “Hong Kong has to rethink how to embrace the new normal.”

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While research gets to grips with Covid-19, change will be the only constant. The new normal will never settle in without changing behaviour and an understanding of the virus resulting in better detection and treatment.

Most nations enacted lockdowns to break the chain of infection and bolster their health care systems. Bumbling leadership and naively gung-ho populations have defeated the purpose of the lockdown in many countries. The lessons of the Spanish flu remain unlearned as unprepared governments choose to reopen. The world will bear witness and bear the brunt of a second wave.

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Two decades after Y2K, or the Year 2000 problem, its challenges are shrouded by the comfort modern technology provides. As governments and firms raced to change and test codes before the new millennium dawned, there was a surge in demand for computer programmers.

As with Covid-19, some countries dived right in while some watched and learned. Few chose a short-term fix like rolling back computer clocks. Today, some debate whether Y2K was a big deal, but this debugging resulted in updated technology, job creation and growth in developing countries’ economies.

At the risk of seeming heartless, it is important to ask whether Covid-19 presents an opportunity. Many have reassessed their lives amid the lockdown. People are questioning purchasing habits, retail therapy is seen as wasteful, there is a realisation of what clean air and blue skies mean, and professions once taken for granted are recognised as important to a healthy society.

With commercial establishments shut, e-commerce has flourished. The effect on manufacturing highlights the need to protect the informal labour market. The private health care sector has been found wanting in handling Covid-19. The latter two issues suggest governments cannot wash their hands of social security and health care.

It would be too much to hope for a complete socioeconomic transformation. Greed and hubris are still economic drivers.

However, baby steps are possible. Working conditions can be improved for sanitation staff, with better equipment, working from home should be encouraged to decrease pollution, e-commerce can be enhanced and wages increased for those handling packages. Meanwhile, government expenditure should be increased and redirected to health care and social security, with more investment in training and reskilling.

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Y2K shows the value of curing a headache before it gets worse. Foreseeing the Y2K bug led to its resolution and created job functions that have expanded today. It is also one of the best examples of the world working together.

HIV is an excellent example of how to live with a deadly disease. Treating and containing HIV, and the social acceptance of those infected, came through communication, education and behavioural change. The inclusion of equity and socioeconomic justice, resulting in the provision of antiretroviral drugs to the infected, blunted the impact of the disease.

It is easy to forget how humans have adapted over time because the new normal transitions into a way of life. The Spanish flu, Y2K and HIV introduced norms that were new normals but are now part of everyday living.

Ignaz Semmelweis and Florence Nightingale were early proponents of handwashing, but it was the Spanish flu that highlighted its value, along with sterilising medial equipment and social distancing. Y2K led to a new genre of education and employment. The treatment of HIV resulted in society rethinking sex, sexuality, hygiene and social justice.

These global incidents became disrupters and can serve as road maps to ease us into this new era. If we do things right and learn from these events, the much vaunted new normal will be nothing more than a page out of history.

Samir Nazareth has worked in the development sector and writes on sociopolitical and environmental issues. He is the author of the travelogue, 1400 Bananas, 76 Towns & 1 Million People

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