US presidential election: between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, China is likely to prefer the devil it knows

Neither will change US policy on China but there is one key difference: Biden will repair ties with US allies, many of whom are also wary of Beijing and more inclined to take collective action against it in the future

Daniel Wagner

Published: 1:00am, 20 Jun 2020

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Will US President Donald Trump or Joe Biden, his presumed opponent in the November presidential election, be better for China? This might seem a ridiculous question, given Trump’s track record on China and the perilous state of Sino-US relations. However, on closer examination, it is not such an easy question to answer; the bilateral relationship has many moving parts and what is good for Beijing is not black and white.

Trump’s pivot away from decades of active American engagement with Beijing and a willingness to look the other way on intellectual property theft, cyber intrusions and unfair trade practices would imply that Beijing may prefer anyone else.

However, the fissure between America and China is not temporary. Lawmakers, businesses and citizens of both nations recognise that something fundamental has changed in the bilateral relationship, and that the changes in supply chains, trading, investing and lending are here to stay.

Importers and exporters have modified their business models and customer bases, bilateral trade and investment levels have dropped off a cliff, and there is little goodwill at the legislative level.

Biden’s record on China has generally been in favour of engagement, but he also supported hard-line policies counter to Beijing’s interest. For example, after he first joined the Senate in 1973, he voted in favour of the Taiwan Relations Act, which stipulates American support for Taiwan’s security.

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In 2001, he publicly questioned the Bush administration’s “strategic ambiguity” on cross-strait affairs. During Barack Obama’s administration, he supported the American navy’s build-up of 60 per cent of its vessels to Asia. And he has publicly criticised President Xi Jinping for his government’s treatment of Uygurs and Hong Kong protesters.

Biden is not generally one to go against the tide in American politics, which implies he would support a continuation of the path Trump has embarked on, especially since many in Washington and around America view Trump’s actions as long overdue.

Equally importantly, however, is the notion that Biden would preside over the repair of America’s relations with its many allies, which have suffered a real body blow under Trump. There is only one way for those relationships to go at this point, and that is to improve. Herein lies a key to what may ultimately matter most to Beijing.

Under a second Trump administration, America’s relations with its allies will clearly continue to deteriorate. That is certainly in Beijing’s interest, as is the Chinese government’s ability to continue to paint Washington’s policies as contrary to China’s near- and long-term interests.

When the Chinese economy has suffered its worst set of challenges in the past three decades, Xi values his ability to rally the people against the US and beat the nationalism drum. Trump remaining in power allows him to do that.

A Biden presidency is likely to see the gradual repair of Washington’s bilateral relationships and a greater ability to act in unison against Beijing. That is something that must concern Xi, because America has many more powerful allies than China does.

Also, many American allies have grown similarly wary of Beijing’s practices and intentions. With its adoption of “wolf warrior” diplomatic retaliation against US allies for speaking against Chinese actions or policies (for example, imposing beef and barley import restrictions against Australia last month), those allies are less inclined to warm up to Beijing and more inclined to take collective action against it in the future.

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So, given that the policy landscape is unlikely to change soon (on either side of the Pacific), that businesses and citizens of both countries have adapted and largely moved on, and that China and the US now see themselves as adversaries, there is little near-term scope for meaningful improvement in relations.

That means Beijing may prefer the devil it knows, however contrary to common sense or conventional wisdom.

Any improvement in the bilateral relationship would be difficult to achieve and take years of sustained engagement – with commitment from both sides, which is not apparent now.

Since that is not going to happen any time soon, Beijing has to believe that its long-term interests lie in the continuation of Trump’s presidency and, with it, a fractured relationship with US allies, which complements America’s fractured society. In contrast, a Biden presidency would see a gradual improvement in Washington’s bilateral relationships and gradual healing of its self-inflicted wounds.

Daniel Wagner is CEO of Country Risk Solutions and author, most recently, of The America-China Divide

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