Waning US must overcome fear of China’s inevitable rise to the top

The US must ultimately grasp the inconvenient reality that China will become the world’s largest economy sooner rather than later
With most US allies hedging their bets, the ‘existential threat’ approach looks like theatrics behind a last-ditch attempt to shore up Pax Americana

Andrew Leung

Published: 1:30am, 20 May 2021

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While denying any attempt to contain China, recent moves by the Biden administration and the stance taken by the Group of 7 seem to have upped the ante by targeting China’s human rights transgressions and playing the Taiwan card.

This accompanies a more robust, if calibrated, approach towards China in what are considered the West’s “strategic assets”, including advanced technology. Efforts also continue apace in Nato members’ naval deployments in the South China Sea.

All these follow the 280-page bipartisan Strategic Competition Act of 2021 in the US Senate to compete, confront or deter China on all dimensions of power as appropriate.

The United States, along with its allies, is fixated on China as an existential threat that must be countered across the board if the US-led liberal world order is to be preserved. US President Joe Biden has vowed not to let China become “the leading country in the world, the wealthiest country in the world and the most powerful country in the world”.

As great power rivalry keeps heating up, several myths must be debunked if US-China relations are not to spin out of control.

First, China’s rise with its perceived problematic practices could be a threat to the Western-dominated world order with its “universal values”. However, where is the evidence that it has become an existential threat? Michael Swaine, East Asia director of the Washington-based Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, says concerns over China’s rise are overblown.

With many domestic challenges, China is unlikely to amass enough global power across key domains including military reach, technological lead, financial depth and ideological appeal. China is not bent on overturning the existing global order or changing other countries’ regimes.

Second, there seems to be an unspoken belief that the Communist Party is illegitimate because of its authoritarianism. However, under its stewardship, the lives of 1.4 billion Chinese people have been transformed in recent decades. Hundreds of millions have been lifted out of poverty.

Third, the other side of the existential threat coin – that China will sooner or later implode because of multiple domestic problems, including worsening demographics and ecology – is equally fanciful.

Contrary to doomsayers over the years, China’s model of development has proven suited to its internal and external imperatives despite its shortcomings, as shown by its remarkable economic ascendancy.

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Fourth, there seems to be a consensus between the US and allies that China’s assertive behaviour should be countered with full rigour wherever it occurs, be it in the South China Sea, Xinjiang or Hong Kong. This ignores China’s legitimate security concerns.

The South China Sea is a critical sea lane for China’s lifeblood of international trade and energy. Apart from territorial integrity, China’s military installations are largely defensive against threats from America’s heavily militarised first and second island chains.

Similarly, Western censures of China regarding Xinjiang and Hong Kong, regardless of their justification, pay little attention to the rise of subversive separatism in these areas.

Additionally, different historical, geographical, cultural, socioeconomic and political backgrounds dictate different modes of government.

China is a vast and diverse entity with 23 provinces, five autonomous regions, four national municipalities and two special administrative regions, most at different levels of development. The multiparty, adversarial democracy of the West hardly fits the bill.

Moreover, the Communist Party has adapted its governance with the times. While remaining relatively “autocratic”, Chinese society has become remarkably freer since the days of Mao Zedong.

In fact, the Chinese dream envisages a more equitable and democratic country. If democracy is to achieve the greatest good for the most people, China does not have to stick to America’s one-taste-for-all Coca-Cola formula, as Foreign Minister Wang Yi said .

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Finally, there is the zero-sum hawkish thinking that China’s ascendancy can and should be thwarted or at least delayed. The prospect appears unthinkable when the US economy, which has dominated the world for decades, is set to be relegated to second place behind China’s.

Supported by millions of innovative university graduates, a massive vibrant domestic market and a peerless high-speed rail infrastructure, China is on track under its latest five-year plan to double its economy by 2035. It is on pace to overtake the US economy by 2028, according to Bank of America Global Research.

The inconvenient reality that China will become the world’s largest economy sooner rather than later must be grasped. This is less unthinkable when viewed historically. In 1820, China’s economy was almost six times as large as that of Great Britain’s, then the largest economy in Europe, and more than 15 times larger than the US’.

However, this does not mean China will necessarily become a world hegemon. The US will still retain superiority in many area, including military outreach, technological lead, dollar supremacy, financial sophistication and institutional appeal. In terms of per capita GDP, it will remain far richer than China for many decades.

Pew Research surveys show negative views of China have reached historic highs across the globe. To regain its rightful place in the world as a leading global power, China must modify its ways and learn how to handle other countries’ particular sensitivities. The US-led resistance on multiple fronts could well help steer China in this direction.

In the final analysis, with most US allies hedging their bets, the “existential threat” approach risks appearing like theatrics behind an all-out, last-ditch attempt to shore up a waning Pax Americana.

In any case, Biden should start talking to, instead of talking past, President Xi Jinping. They must gain a better understanding of each other’s national sensitivities and aspirations if US-China conflict is not to become a reality.

Andrew K.P. Leung is an independent China strategist. [email protected]