How Belarus’ brazen plane diversion reflects the EU’s struggle to act as a global power

If the world’s third-largest economy is to shake off its ‘hobbled giant’ image, it must act more consistently on major foreign policy issues such as relations with China
The swift retaliation against Belarus does offer an opportunity to become more effective – if it can maintain a united front

Nicholas Ross Smith

Published: 1:30am, 28 May 2021

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Last Sunday, a Ryanair flight from Athens to Vilnius (two EU capitals) was forced to land in Belarus on the pretext that there was a bomb on board. People on the plane were forced to disembark, the most noteworthy being an outspoken critic of the Lukashenko regime, the journalist Roman Protasevich. He is now in detention and faces an uncertain future.

Such an act is not unprecedented. The United States and its allies have a history of diverting foreign aircraft if they suspect people of interest are on board. For instance, in 2013, the plane of then Bolivian president Evo Morales was forced to land in Austria on suspicion that Edward Snowden was on board.

But what is surprising about Belarus’ actions is that this is a brazen act by a much smaller power against a much larger one (the EU). It serves to show that, when it comes to international relations, the EU rarely garners international respect.

On paper, the EU should be considered a behemoth in international relations. With a single market that is the world’s third-largest economy, it has often been characterised as a power through trade. In addition, its soft power resources are considerable and its hard security is underpinned by the Nato alliance.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko speaks at a forum in Minsk last September. Belarus’ diversion of a Ryanair flight over its airspace sparked a global outcry. Photo: AFP

Yet, the EU remains the proverbial “hobbled giant”. Commentators have predicted that it would emerge as a third superpower alongside the US and China, but such an outcome seems unlikely.

It is not for lack of trying. Since the EU failed to mediate in the Yugoslav wars in the 1990s, much of the union’s reform has been focused on improving its ability to act on the international stage.

Although this has not included the creation of an EU army – something French President Emmanuel Macron has touted – the evolution is, nevertheless, impressive, particularly the creation of the European External Action Service, a diplomatic corps which now has a presence in most countries.

What is apparent, however, is that without further integration – perhaps towards becoming a federation – the EU will continue to falter on the international stage. As it stands, there are too many chefs in the kitchen, so to speak.

The EU should redefine relations with China amid transatlantic tension

Take the EU’s relationship with China as an example. In the EU’s 2003 European Security Strategy, China was identified (along with Japan, India and Canada) as somewhere the EU “should look to develop strategic partnerships”.

China, particularly after the global financial crisis, became arguably the most attractive potential strategic partner for the EU. It also presented a test of its ability to act independently of the US.

However, in the years that followed, the EU has been unable to act consistently with regard to how it deals with China. While trade relations remain robust, the touted strategic partnership has not produced much harmonisation nor has it facilitated any progress on a free-trade agreement. Relations have also been periodically strained by issues such as Tibet, Hong Kong and Xinjiang.

An example of the EU’s inconsistency was its decision in December 2020 to initiate the process of finalising a Comprehensive Agreement on Investment with China which would make foreign direct investment flows between the two cheaper and easier to facilitate.

This decision raised eyebrows because it came at a time of growing criticism of China’s policies in Xinjiang. After this criticism grew louder, the EU eventually, less than six months after a deal was announced, moved to suspend ratification of the treaty.

Indeed, the inconsistency of the EU’s institutions and its member states’ attitudes towards China has led to fears that China might seek to divide and rule by bilaterally targeting those EU member states more tolerant of it. The Belt and Road Initiative and the – albeit now faltering – 17+1 format have been seen by some as ways for Beijing to try and generate loyalty to China in Europe.

How the West can best counter China’s belt and road

But, arguably, while the EU’s disjointedness limits its ability to act effectively, it also makes the EU hard to infiltrate and influence. The result is, therefore, more of the “hobbled giant” behaviour that has characterised EU international action.

All of this is why, when the news of Belarus’ brazen actions broke, people were sceptical as to what the EU would do about this blatant violation.

Pessimism was especially heightened when the EU Commissioner for Transport, Adina Valean, tweeted the news that the Ryanair plane had left Minsk, describing it as “great news for everyone especially the families and friends of people on board” but failing to mention what else had occurred.

But, to give the EU some credit, its response has been swift and potentially damaging to Belarus.

At a special meeting of the European Council, convened a day after the incident, the EU demanded the immediate release of Protasevich (and his partner Sofia Sapega) while also initiating the process of applying further sanctions, banning Belarusian carriers from EU airspace and calling on EU-based carriers to avoid Belarusian airspace.

Although EU-Belarusian relations have been tense for a while, Belarus’ leader Alexander Lukashenko has often used the EU as a contingency plan for his dealings with Russia. Those days seem over now.

If the EU can maintain solidarity on this front, it might represent a baby step towards becoming more effective as an international actor.

Post Brexit, the political will – especially cheer-led by Macron – for a more effective EU in international relations is there (although pressing internal issues remain) but the EU sorely needs to etch out a plausible pathway forward. Superpower status is still a long way off, but the potential is obvious.

Nicholas Ross Smith is an associate professor of international studies at the University of Nottingham Ningbo China