Britain’s Sunak is choosing pragmatism towards China, but his own MPs aren’t convinced

Faced with an ailing economy and weary public, new UK leader Rishi Sunak has signalled that he won’t risk upsetting valuable trade ties with Beijing
But this stance comes at a delicate time internationally, and in his own party Sunak must contend with an increasingly vocal anti-China faction

Thomas O. Falk

Published: 3:30am, 6 Dec 2022

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Britain has been so self-absorbed in recent months that new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has limited himself to repeating two key messages his predecessors already considered a sine qua non on the world stage: Brexit and support for Ukraine are irreversible. For the world’s sixth largest economy, nuclear power and permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, such statements hardly qualify as a foreign policy vision.

All the more important, then, was Sunak’s first foreign policy address last week in London. While his announcements of further support for Ukraine, a steady presence in the Indo-Pacific and improving relations with the EU were hardly surprising, the million-dollar question was how Sunak would position himself and the country towards China.

Even more so, as Sunak is an unknown quantity in the geopolitical arena. Unlike his direct predecessors, Liz Truss and Boris Johnson, he did not serve as Secretary of State before moving into 10 Downing Street.

However, that inexperience turns out to be a surplus in Sunak’s case. After all, a man without a foreign policy doctrine written in stone is much more likely to rely on pragmatism than staunch ideology.

His penchant for realpolitik became apparent during his speech. Although Sunak stated his government recognises that Beijing poses a “systemic challenge to our values and interests”, he did not describe China as a “threat” to the kingdom’s security. This is particularly noteworthy given that Liz Truss was reportedly determined to tag the threat label onto China.

And although the days when British prime ministers took media-savvy photos in pubs with President Xi Jinping are “over”, Sunak emphasised that a pragmatic approach would henceforth determine British relations with China while warning against “simplistic Cold War rhetoric”.

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His choice of words last Monday delivered what many had hoped for from Sunak: a professionalism and political gravitas that would elevate British foreign policy to more than unrealistic fantasies of a return of former glory à la “Global Britain”.

As former Chancellor of the Exchequer and an investment banker before his political career, it seems plausible that Sunak possesses a proclivity for favouring economic factors over obsolete bloc thinking and dogma.

His criticism of China in the very same speech notwithstanding, British-Sino relations during his tenure are more likely to look like those under David Cameron than Theresa May, Boris Johnson or Liz Truss. And the pragmatism he promises is easily translated: conduct business as much as possible and compete where necessary.

The British economy, in particular, was eagerly awaiting such a foreign policy direction after 12 months of mixed signals from the government.

A shopper passes a closed shop in Leeds on November 25. The UK economy remains in turmoil. Photo: Bloomberg

As recently as July, Sunak declared during the leadership contest that he considered China the “greatest threat” to Britain and world security and prosperity. At the time, he promised to shut down all Confucius Institutes in Britain if elected.

But Sunak is neither an ideologue nor a hawk. And governing a country is a different task to obtaining votes. Once in charge, his pragmatic instinct cautioned him against slamming all doors on Beijing. China remains a crucial partner for Britain to prosper outside Europe, being the country’s third biggest trade partner and primary import market.

Severing ties with Beijing would mean old and new trade partners become necessary to fill the void, forcing Britain to negotiate from a position of weakness, not to mention that it would raise the likelihood of an inflationary cost-push in global supply chains that no one desires.

Still, Sunak’s blueprint comes at a delicate time internationally. The anti-lockdown protests and temporary arrest of a BBC journalist in China, and the fact that the United States is taking a harsh stance against China and expects its allies to follow suit, make it difficult for Sunak to get closer to Beijing.

Moreover, his previous rhetoric shows a lane for a hardline approach towards China, particularly within his own Conservative Party, exists. Unsurprisingly, his speech disappointed the “China hawks” in his party, who have become steadily more China-sceptic in recent years.

Sir Iain Duncan Smith, a Conservative member of Parliament, accused Sunak of going soft on China, saying, “I wonder if robust pragmatism now sounds more and more like appeasement”.

Sunak hence finds himself in a challenging position. On the one hand, as he rightly pointed out himself, Britain “simply cannot ignore China’s significance in world affairs”, as it extends to economic stability, climate change, food security, nor the benefits the Chinese market conveys to Britain.

On the other hand, Sunak faces strong opposition on China among the Tories and, due to arguably lacking a proper mandate, he does not possess the authority needed to confront these China sceptics.

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These sceptics will hope for the Integrated Review, which establishes Britain’s defence and security strategy for the next decade, to suggest a change in stance on China and conclude that it is indeed a threat, not a mere challenge. If this were the case, Sunak could be compelled to backtrack on his idea of “robust pragmatism”.

However, even with a different label attached to Beijing, Sunak’s general idea regarding China has become pretty apparent since Monday.

And a certain degree of stability on policies is only in his best interest. The ailing economy and increased distrust in the government are tasks that will not allow much distraction – particularly with his party trailing by 20 per cent in the polls and elections looming no later than 2025.

Thomas O. Falk is a UK-based independent journalist and political analyst