US-China talks must stay on course despite dispute over balloon
- Whatever the nature of the flight, the incident threatens to derail efforts both sides have put into improving fraught bilateral relations
Having blown up into a crisis, the China-United States balloon dispute continues to spiral out of control when it needs to come back to earth. Depending on which side you believe, the Chinese balloon shot down by the US was either on a meteorological mission, or a covert surveillance operation that crossed airspace boundaries.
The latter may resonate with time-honoured intelligence gathering on the ground by agents and diplomats, but hardly belongs to a world of cyber espionage and spy satellites. That said, it threatens to derail efforts both sides have put into improving fraught bilateral relations, prompting the US to scrap a visit to Beijing by its top diplomat, which Beijing insisted had never been fixed anyway.
Meanwhile, China has accused the US of more than 10 high-altitude balloon violations while the US complains of misinformation and says it has shot down three more objects.
Thankfully, officials say they are more likely to have served commercial purposes than espionage. Whatever the conflicting versions, hopefully, in the long term, the fallout need not undermine an understanding between the two countries’ leaders.
On the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit last November, presidents Xi Jinping and Joe Biden agreed to reinstate channels for diplomatic dialogue and form working groups on mutual concerns. That makes room for voices of reason to be heard, and it is worth safeguarding.
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US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, after all, has not ruled out visiting Beijing. As former Singapore foreign minister George Yeo has said, it will be time to worry if the breach does not heal within a few months.
Why has the issue of balloons suddenly surfaced and become the source of such conflict?
As US congressman Jim Himes of the House Intelligence Committee told an interviewer, there is “an immense amount [of balloons] up there … weather balloons, Wi-fi balloons … And now we’re just particularly sensitised to it. I think because we’re looking hard, we’re seeing a lot … I’m relatively sure they’re not a threat [to Americans] or national security”.
Renewed tension does not reflect Beijing’s recent easing of a requirement for advance approval of meetings between local officials and the US consul general, asking for five days’ notice instead.
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Both sides may be making a big issue of balloon flights but, fundamentally neither wants a complete break-up. In that respect they should both be mindful of a strong nationalistic reaction to be found in sentiment on Chinese social media.
Notwithstanding fundamental differences that will always be there, both sides should seize every opportunity, whether by action or gesture, to work towards keeping their relationship on a basic even keel.
