Domestic politics, the economy and China all loom large on Biden’s steep path to re-election
The sitting US president is expected to run again next year, but he faces many challenges in forming a winning coalition and working with a divided Congress
Handling competition with China is high on Biden’s agenda but will only matter to voters if he can address the economy and ease concerns about his age
US President Joe Biden’s bid for re-election will struggle to build a winning coalition within a fiercely divided country. China will figure in his campaign strategy during the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024.
Biden has many hurdles as there is no foolproof majority in US politics today. He must rally his supporters to vote in record numbers. Deep inroads are needed into Hispanic communities and other ethnic groups, including Asian-Americans. Embittered, right-wing extremists must be fended off, as they were during the midterms in 2022.
Biden must manage domestic politics while courting voters, from averting a federal government shutdown to reducing gun violence and dodging Republican candidates’ attacks. A Republican-controlled House of Representatives and the Senate’s narrow Democratic majority mean deal-making will be tough.
Low approval ratings and growing concerns around his age mean the road to victory is particularly steep. Polls show his disapproval rating running at about 52 per cent, something that has dogged him since September 2021. The economy, crime, climate change and immigration are high on Americans’ list of concerns, according to Ipsos polls. Nearly 80 per cent of respondents to a Pew Research Centre survey in January viewed the US economy as either only “fair” or “poor”.
China poses three challenges for Biden. First, President Xi Jinping’s trajectory towards a diversionary aggressive stance heightens Washington’s distrust of Beijing’s motives, notably its “no limits” friendship with Russia, as affirmed in a recent meeting between China’s top diplomat Wang Yi and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Frequent encounters between Chinese jet fighters and US surveillance aircraft flying over the South China Sea add to US-China tensions.
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Chinese fighter jet almost collides with US military plane over South China Sea
Chinese fighter jet almost collides with US military plane over South China Sea
Second, China’s economic statecraft is seen as threatening US national security interests. Robust development and production of digital technologies are as critical as building troops’ firepower. In realpolitik, dependence on a single country for key components poses risks.
Third, geostrategic conflicts that have long troubled US-China relations continue to be flashpoints. These include the status quo in Taiwan, the territorial dispute with Japan over the Diaoyu Islands – which Japan calls the Senkakus – and human rights abuses in China, among others.
All three challenges attest to the two superpowers’ codependence. All are inevitably entangled in misunderstandings and miscalculations.
The past few weeks show the difficulties for Biden in walking the tightrope. With the dangers staring from below the high wire, he must not trip, stagger or stumble as he dodges fusillades and pushes a wheelbarrow.
If Biden penalises China too severely, companies that depend heavily on its consumers and factories will press him to ease up, not wanting to be shut out of a massive market. Many US-based consumer-facing companies are opening new locations in China. US allies will express concerns about the consequences for both their economies and the war in Ukraine if US-China relations become a cold war.
If he appears complacent, opponents will criticise his perceived weakness. Anti-China fervour in Washington already runs high. The House recently formed a select committee on China, with Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy saying, “The era of trusting communist China is over.”
The Biden administration’s responses to the recent balloon incidents show the complexities, dilemmas and challenges for the president in abiding by his “competition, not conflict” approach.
Last month, Biden ordered a US fighter jet to shoot down a large balloon from China that had drifted through US and Canadian airspace. The US has said the balloon was for surveillance, while China says it was for civilian research. The issue escalated as other balloons were discovered and shot down in an abundance of caution.
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Chinese balloon row: Joe Biden says US-China relations have not taken a big hit
Chinese balloon row: Joe Biden says US-China relations have not taken a big hit
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken postponed his scheduled meeting in China. Seeking to ratchet down the tension, Biden said the US was not looking for a new cold war and noted he would be talking with Xi “to go to the bottom” of the balloon incident. Meanwhile, Xi and Putin plan to meet this spring.
Other such events unfurled throughout February, during which senior Taiwanese and US officials met in Washington while a group of mainland Chinese officials visited Taiwan for the first time in three years. Later, reports emerged that the US plans to deploy between 100 and 200 soldiers to Taiwan in the next few months to help train Taiwanese forces.
Biden made a trip to Ukraine and gave a stirring speech in Warsaw, extolling Ukraine’s strength and decrying Russia’s atrocities. This was met with a high-profile visit to the Kremlin by Wang, who offered assurances that the Sino-Russian relationship would grow towards a “new consensus”.
US intelligence sources have warned that China is considering supplying lethal weapons to Russia. Biden met the leaders of the Bucharest Nine nations, affirming that “we will defend literally every inch of Nato”. Meanwhile, China is trying to claw back influence in eastern Europe, a region disillusioned by Beijing’s implicit support for Putin.
US President Joe Biden (left), Polish President Andrzej Duda (centre) and Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg (right) attend the B-9 Summit for Bucharest Nine nations in Warsaw on February 22. Photo: DPA
We can only expect more parries, lunges and ripostes in the months ahead. China and the US will each test the other’s threshold for breaking diplomatic ties. Each wonders what would follow if the other is left unchecked.
But China will only matter to US voters as a deciding factor between Biden and his opponent if the discord with Beijing spotlights two vulnerabilities. Will Biden be effective in dealing with the top issue in voters’ minds, which is the economy? Will Biden’s weaknesses, which polls suggest are his age and the rising costs of living, be highlighted in the conflicts ahead?
There is a good distance ahead for Biden to walk. His first few metres have not jarred his steadfast balance.
James David Spellman, a graduate of Oxford University, is principal of Strategic Communications LLC, a consulting firm based in Washington, DC
