What if an America under Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis turns its back on the Ukraine war?
- With both expected Republican presidential candidates opposing continued US support for Ukraine, Putin now has hope that the Western alliance will shatter
- But if America allows Putin to destroy Ukraine and not pay the price, these Russian tactics will spread and become the new normal
While in office, US secretary of state Madeleine Albright referred to America as an “indispensable nation”, a statement that is still true. Last century, America ensured that Adolf Hitler’s totalitarian barbarism did not turn Europe into a dark place. This century, the United States – and Nato – has been the last line of defence against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s imperialist fantasies, and the primary reason a sovereign Ukraine still exists.
The coordinated efforts by the West have forced Putin to reconsider his strategy. The best he can hope for is a stalemate and an eventual erosion of the new-found Western cohesion.
DeSantis, in response to a questionnaire from America’s leading Putin admirer Tucker Carlson, called Russia’s war a “territorial dispute” that did not involve America’s “vital national interests” – a statement more fitting from Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov than the governor of Florida.
In a recently posted video, Trump talks about “fundamentally re-evaluating Nato’s purpose and Nato’s mission” while claiming the greatest threat to the US is not Russia. In light of former national security adviser John Bolton’s claim that Trump was probably planning to withdraw from Nato if he won a second term, his words and clear pro-Putin stance should set alarms ringing for anyone not sitting in the Kremlin.
DeSantis, however, knows that if the West loses Ukraine, the geopolitical implications will be epochal. In 2014 and 2015, DeSantis, then a congressman, called for the sending of “defensive and offensive” weapons to Ukraine, and even voted to refuse to fund a new missile defence treaty with Russia until it withdrew from Ukraine.
He also described himself in 2017 as a student of the “Reagan school that’s tough on Russia”.
Consider the message being conveyed to Putin. He now knows that under either of the two leading Republican candidates, who together command 60-70 per cent of the Republican vote, the message is: if Russia hangs in there, US help for Ukraine will cease and the Western alliance will break.
02:21
‘They started the war’: Vladimir Putin accuses West of stoking world war to destroy Russia
Hillary Clinton witnessed first-hand how effective troll farms and the hacking of the Democratic National Committee’s servers can be. And one can rest assured that Russia has become far more sophisticated in using these techniques since.
DeSantis’ recent statements on Ukraine were so preposterous that the Republican foreign policy establishment pushed back firmly. Senators Lindsey Graham and Marco Rubio as well as former vice-president Mike Pence all uttered harsh criticism, while former New Jersey governor Chris Christie went as far as comparing DeSantis to Neville Chamberlain, the British prime minister who infamously tried to appease Hitler.
It’s not merely about what happens in January 2025 but also what happens now. Anti-democratic forces all over the globe are assessing how firm the Western resolve is and how robust and reliable the US is as an ally. Lenin’s credo, “you probe with bayonets: if you find mush, you push”, could soon become general wisdom again.
03:27
Biden reaffirms commitment to Ukraine in Poland after Putin suspends nuclear arms treaty with US
The Global South are falling out of love with the West’s liberal order
With Trump or DeSantis fighting to be on the ticket in 2024, nothing short of Ukraine’s survival and the global world order will be on the ballot. It is a scenario in which America could no longer be indispensable.
Thomas O. Falk is a UK-based independent journalist and political analyst
