Former president Donald Trump watches a video of US President Joe Biden playing during a rally for Senator Marco Rubio at the Miami-Dade Country Fair and Exposition on November 6, 2022. Despite the wishes of many Americans, the 2024 presidential election could come down to a rematch between Biden and Trump. Photo: TNS
Opinion
Thomas O. Falk
Thomas O. Falk
Why a Biden-Trump rematch few want could be good news for Democrats in 2024
Americans have made it clear they would prefer neither of the two most recent US presidents in 2024, but no viable alternatives seem to exist
Given Donald Trump’s many faults and legal troubles, appearing semi-coherent and a somewhat stable economy could be enough to carry Joe Biden to victory
The figures are rather straightforward. US President Joe Biden’s approval ratings have hit 36 per cent in the latest polls – the low point of his tenure – and he trails in a hypothetical general election match-up against Donald Trump. These numbers notwithstanding, he remains the favourite in a rematch with his predecessor.
Nobody was surprised when Biden announced he would run for a second term. A strong result in the 2022 midterm elections has all but ceased internal party scepticism of Biden. Many Democrats did not want him to run, but a viable alternative does not exist.
Vice-President Kamala Harris, who historically should be a natural successor to Biden, appears to lack the desired pedigree to be president. Her net favourability is lower than that of her predecessor Mike Pence compared to the same point in his tenure and well under the ratings of three previous vice-presidents.
Biden now faces the task of securing a second term that would have him turn 86 when he leaves the Oval Office for good, on a resume that frankly is not the worst.
In his first two years in office, his Democrats had thin majorities in the House of Representatives and Senate. Nonetheless, he managed to push through a sprawling Covid-19 pandemic relief plan, a US$1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure law and the US$430 billion Inflation Reduction Act, all within the first 20 months of his term.
01:48
Joe Biden announces bid for second 4-year term as US President
Joe Biden announces bid for second 4-year term as US President
On the international stage, Biden oversaw a withdrawal from Afghanistan, led international allies to boost Ukraine following Russia’s invasion and reinvigorated alliances in Europe that were damaged under his predecessor. At the same time, Biden’s loose spending and other factors have fuelled inflation and the continuing banking crisis remains a risk for the economy.
The economy is key to Biden’s re-election bid as it remains the most critical issue in presidential elections. George H.W. Bush famously learned this against Bill Clinton in 1992. Bush’s approval rating hit 90 per cent in 1991 after victory in the first Gulf War, but a year later a recession and rising unemployment cost him re-election against Clinton.
However, Biden’s policies, record or age will matter little if Trump gains the Republican nomination. If that happens, the 2024 election would be similar to the contest of unpopularity in 2020.
That appears to be the direction the United States is headed in as Trump leads the latest Republican primary polls by a wide margin. The party’s new golden boy Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has been committing one faux pas after another, such as his remarks on Ukraine or his crusade against Disney. His lack of personality and political instinct on the national stage appear to have put him out of the race before he even officially entered.
The others who have already declared their candidacy, such as former US ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley and former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson, or those who will announce their candidacy in the upcoming weeks have no chance of receiving the party’s nomination. The field, DeSantis’ incompetence and Trump’s rise from the ashes of insurrection and indictment are a severe issue for Republicans, a blessing for Biden and a dilemma for the nation.
Americans are pretty clear about wanting neither Biden nor Trump. With a rematch between the two seemingly inevitable, though, Biden is likely to be the favourite despite the latest polls. This is not just because of his record but, just as in 2020, because he is not Trump. Despite Republicans’ best efforts to portray Biden as the American Mao Zedong, he is not a threat to US democracy.
This matters as Americans have shown they will vote for an unpopular choice if democracy is in peril. Political science suggests that, for most candidates, the key is the unpopularity of the opponent. It is called negative partisanship, and it was on full display when Biden’s previous election win was made possible by Americans voting for what they considered the lesser evil, resulting in Biden receiving a record number of votes for president.
It is difficult to see how Trump could regain those votes from Biden after the violence of January 6, 2021, and his many legal troubles. Biden’s chances are also positive from a historical perspective as just 10 incumbent presidents have failed to secure a second term, with Trump being the latest example.
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US jury finds Donald Trump liable in abuse and defamation case involving writer E. Jean Carroll
US jury finds Donald Trump liable in abuse and defamation case involving writer E. Jean Carroll
One former president, Grover Cleveland, returned to the Oval Office after electoral defeat, but his curriculum vitae did not include impeachment trials, an insurrection and the other scandals and attacks on US democracy that marked Trump’s presidency. Those factors and more will be a significant encumbrance for Trump among those who traditionally decide elections – independents and those who usually do not vote.
On top of these factors is the three Trump-appointed conservative justices on the Supreme Court voting to overturn national abortion rights last June. Since then, many Republican-run states have imposed harsh restrictions and all but banned the procedure. Trump bears a great deal of responsibility for these unpopular restrictions and will suffer in a group he already alienated in 2020: female voters.
Meanwhile, all Biden must do is sound coherent, stay clear of the culture wars, keep the economy somewhat stable and not be Trump. These should not be enough to win the most powerful office in the world, but Americans are likely to once again face a choice between the plague and cholera, with the latter being far more survivable than the former.
Thomas O. Falk is a UK-based independent journalist and political analyst
