US and the Philippines are playing a dangerous game in the South China Sea

Provocative actions over a contested atoll, the US stepping up threats over mutual defence, and planned joint naval patrols could push China to miscalculate
An incident like that in the Gulf of Tonkin – real or manufactured – which launched the US into the Vietnam war, may push an anti-China Congress to demand military action

Mark J. Valencia

Published: 1:30am, 31 May 2023

Why you can trust SCMP

On August 4, 1964, the US claimed that North Vietnamese patrol boats had attacked the US naval destroyer Maddox in the Gulf of Tonkin. This led to the passage by the US Congress of the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution less than a week later that became then-president Lyndon Johnson’s legal justification for sending US forces to South Vietnam. That led to the open involvement of the United States in Vietnam’s civil war.

We now know that the attack never happened and the fateful decisions were based on naval intelligence shaped to fit Johnson’s political needs and preferences. He was looking for an excuse to take the country to war without a formal declaration by Congress. That was then. But history has a way of repeating itself, especially if lessons go unlearned.

Could recent developments set the stage for an excuse for the US military to enter someone else’s conflict – this time, between the Philippines and China in the South China Sea? Such an incident could – like before – suck US allies Australia and South Korea into a wider fray.

A version of this scenario could develop at Second Thomas Shoal where the Chinese coastguard recently blocked a Philippine coastguard vessel from approaching the shoal. According to an international arbitration panel established under the auspices of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, the submerged shoal is part of the Philippine continental shelf and within its exclusive economic zone.

The Philippines, therefore, has exclusive sovereign rights to its resources. Technically, no country can claim sovereignty over a submerged feature. Nevertheless, the Philippines sees it as a sovereignty issue. China also claims it as part of its historic claim to much of the South China Sea that was rejected by the same panel. Thus, this dispute is coloured by nationalism, and inaction could threaten the legitimacy of both governments.

The blame for the recent near-collision is not as black and white as most Western media would have it. Beijing said the incident was a premeditated provocation by Manila. Yes, the resources belong to the Philippines and the Chinese vessel violated international convention by blocking the path of its Philippine counterpart.

A much larger Chinese coastguard vessel blocks the Philippine’s BRP Malapascua from entering the mouth of Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea on April 23. Photo: AP

But the Philippines may have been trying to provoke an incident. The two Philippine coastguard vessels broadcast their intention to enter the shoal and warned the Chinese vessels to “stay clear from our passage”. Manila knew from previous experience that China would react aggressively to such a move. But it may have wanted to instigate a Chinese response for the international journalists conveniently invited along on its “sovereignty patrol” as part of a campaign to publicise China’s depredations.

Curiously, the incident happened to involve the Philippine vessel not carrying the journalists, allowing them to observe without being in immediate danger. The journalists duly sensationalised the incident.

But what does this have to do with the US? It has a Mutual Defence Treaty with the Philippines that requires a formal consideration of military help if the other party is attacked. Having previously prevaricated on the meaning of “attack”, the US State Department now seems to have laid down a challenge to China.

It now “reaffirms that an armed attack in the Pacific, which includes the South China Sea, on Philippine armed forces, public vessels or aircraft, including those of the coastguard, would invoke US mutual defence commitments under Article IV of the 1951 US Philippines Mutual Defence Treaty”.

Further, the commander of the US Pacific Fleet, Admiral Samuel Paparo, said the US is prepared to help the Philippines if China interferes with Manila’s efforts to resupply its forces on its grounded naval ship on the shoal.

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The Philippines anchors buoys in disputed South China Sea to counter Beijing’s claims

The US has been issuing general warnings to China regarding such actions for some time. So far, the incidents, including the shining of a laser at the bridge of a Philippine coastguard vessel, has yet to trigger the US threshold for activation of the defence treaty. Moreover, there is wiggle room in the requirements for giving military aid.

The treaty’s Article IV states that an armed attack on either party would be acted upon in accordance with its constitutional processes, and that this shall be brought to the immediate attention of the UN Security Council. Once the council has restored peace and security, hostilities must cease.

So the decision-making process could be drawn out and military aid is not guaranteed. Yet the US seems to have upped the ante by agreeing to joint patrols with the Philippines later this year. The first may well be near Second Thomas Shoal.

South China Sea flashpoints are multiplying. What will China do?

The US has generated public pressure on itself to make good on its threat. Otherwise, it will lose credibility and be considered a toothless tiger. This could cause China to miscalculate. The situation is on the verge of becoming a game of chicken between the US and China with the Philippines in the middle and perhaps even a facilitator.

If neither side blinks, a clash could ensue. To try to contain the conflict, the US is likely to use a coastguard vessel for any joint patrol – not its navy, which, like China’s, will be lurking over the horizon. Whether any clash intensifies and spreads depends on the wisdom of leaders.

I am optimistic that one or both sides will back off. But, given the anti-China mood in Washington, an incident like that in the Gulf of Tonkin – real or manufactured – may push Congress to demand military action. Hold on to your hat.

Mark J. Valencia is a non-resident senior research fellow at the Huayang Institute for Maritime Cooperation and Ocean Governance