As US-China rivalry intensifies, Beijing has no illusions about Washington’s olive branch
For all the diplomatic overtures, and talk of de-risking and not decoupling, the US continues to corral allies and treat China as a threat
It may take years for the US national psyche to accept the legitimacy of a non-Caucasian, ancient civilisation with a different political ideology sharing global power
Last month, US President Joe Biden said US-China relations would “thaw” very soon. Then US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin tried and failed to secure a meeting with his Chinese counterpart at the recent Shangri-La security forum in Singapore. Now US Secretary of State Antony Blinken expects to visit Beijing on June 18, after a trip planned for February was derailed by the Chinese balloon incident.
Does this eagerness to mend fences suggest the United States is willing to compromise when it comes to China’s “core interests”, including Taiwan, for the sake of harmonious coexistence?
Not so fast. There remains robust bipartisan support for an all-out, grand American strategy to triumph over a perceived China threat to the US-led “liberal world order” that was consolidated after World War II. Jonathan Ward’s new book The Decisive Decade explains why this existential battle is now or never, and would include an anti-China “arsenal of democracy” in four arenas: economic, diplomatic, military and ideological.
And while China has proven its economic resilience as the world’s largest manufacturer, this also means it is deeply embedded in global supply and value chains, including, critically, for rare earths. The US-led anti-China rhetoric may have shifted from “decoupling” to “de-risking”, but continues to focus on “strategic” technologies like high-end semiconductor chips and 5G. There is no let-up in the treatment of a rising China as a threat.
The US has weaponised the dollar to impose sanctions across the globe and this has boomeranged, as expounded in Agathe Demarais’ Backfire: How Sanctions Reshape the World Against US Interests. There is a strong de-dollarisation undercurrent among developing country groupings, such as BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation – not to mention China’s rapidly developing digital yuan as an alternative for international trade.
While the dollar’s deep-seated dominance remains secure for now, continuing erosion of its trustworthiness bodes ill for the US’ financial and economic stability. It may be high time Washington re-calibrated its hard power, but dollar-based sanctions are unlikely to be ditched soon.
By 2035, the developing world is set to account for around 60 per cent of the global economy, based on purchasing power parity, according to the Conference Board Global Economic Outlook. Most developing nations have China as their largest trading partner and many are moving in its orbit. As a counterweight, there has been an array of American diplomatic overtures to cement strategic ties, both economic and military, with hitherto-neglected states in the South Pacific, Middle East, South America and Africa.
As a self-perceived defender of the “free world”, Washington is unlikely to let up on Beijing for what it deems as transgressions of human rights and trade norms, aggressiveness in the South China Sea and coercion over Taiwan. Nor is it likely to give up on corralling Western allies to confront China.
Although the US says it does not want to suppress China or separate its economy from China’s, the language reminds me of Michael Corleone’s line in film The Godfather: “It’s not personal ... it’s strictly business.”
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China, US offer competing security visions for Asia-Pacific at security forum
China, US offer competing security visions for Asia-Pacific at security forum
In his book The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, John Mearsheimer explains that great powers have historically sought dominance at each other’s expense, leading to inevitable conflict. He also calls out the folly of US liberal hegemony in The Great Delusion, as a grand strategy to spread democracy, defend human rights and promote peace that only turns into a recipe for endless wars, with human rights violated.
The catastrophic wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, which resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths and untold suffering, speak volumes against the backdrop of a deeply divided US with poisoned domestic politics, broken infrastructure, unaffordable healthcare, widespread urban homelessness, drug abuse and a high incarceration rate.
Washington is unlikely to acknowledge that, contrary to its demonising rhetoric, China’s Communist Party has a successful governance system that has tremendously improved people’s lives over decades.
According to separate, independent research conducted by market research company Ipsos, communications firm Edelman’s Trust Barometer and the Harvard Kennedy School, among the countries surveyed, Chinese people report the highest level of personal happiness and the greatest trust in their government, with satisfaction with their government having grown consistently.
Beijing is under no illusions about Washington’s recent proffering of the olive branch. When Foreign Minister Qin Gang met newly appointed US ambassador Nicholas Burns in Beijing last month, he called the US out for its double standards, accusing Washington of saying one thing and acting differently, damaging China’s sovereignty, security and development interests. He called for genuine dialogue and cooperation on the basis of mutual respect and reciprocity, to build harmony despite differences.
Yet, dominated by powerful vested interests, the US’ national psyche is such that it may take years, if not decades, for it to be willing to accept the legitimacy of a non-Caucasian, ancient civilisation with a different political ideology in sharing global power alongside US-led Western democracies.
For now, Blinken’s Beijing visit, should it materialise, may serve to break the ice, build some guardrails including on quiet diplomacy, and even score points on mutually beneficial projects such as food security and renewable energy, as suggested by Ryan Haas, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Brookings Institution. But it is unlikely to reverse the course of the US’ intensifying great power rivalry with China.
Andrew K.P. Leung is an independent China strategist.[email protected]
