US presidential election: is there a better option than Biden or Trump for both America and China?

With polls suggesting Americans want neither Biden nor Trump to run again, popular California governor Gavin Newsom could be the Democrats’ saviour
Given his pro-China stance and the possibility of a reset in Sino-US-ties, a Newsom run could also be a blessing for Beijing

Thomas O. Falk

Published: 3:30am, 15 Aug 2023

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As the US presidential election approaches, China is no doubt following developments in Washington with interest. Under both Joe Biden and Donald Trump, Sino-US relations have changed. But who does Beijing prefer?

China’s desire to challenge American hegemony and end the unipolar world attracted a more critical assessment in the Obama years, but it was Trump who exploited growing resentment against China in 2016 to escalate the situation via a trade war.

However, his tariffs on China also punished American producers and consumers. Trump was forced to provide billions in additional subsidies to American farmers to mitigate their losses.

Should Trump return to the White House next year, it must be assumed that he will be an even bigger China hawk, while the Republican Party is all-in against China – a crucial development as Trump and the party can be expected to peddle anti-China policies even if they are detrimental to American interests, as long as doing so satisfies their voter base.

Trump’s unpredictability is important. He is neither an ideologue nor a pragmatist. Would anyone be shocked if he got up one morning and decided to sever US diplomatic relations with Beijing? Probably not.

Most importantly, in a second term with no further elections to worry about, Trump could become completely unhinged. One must also not forget that, despite claiming to have won the last election, he has also accused China of using the Covid-19 pandemic in a plot against his re-election.

But Biden has not been the most China-friendly president, either. During his election campaign, he called Chinese President Xi Jinping a “thug”, and later a “dictator”.

He has mostly maintained Trump’s tariffs and imposed further export restrictions on hi-tech computer chips and machines used to produce semiconductors in China, denying Beijing the state-of-the-art chips required for cutting-edge scientific research, and space and military technology.

In recent weeks, however, the situation has calmed down, not least because senior US officials have met their Chinese counterparts for seemingly constructive talks. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen even gave the Chinese a heads-up on new rules on US investments in China, a sign of detente without naivety. The Biden administration has also moved away from talk of decoupling to “de-risking”.

Call it ‘decoupling’ or ‘de-risking’, damage of US’ China policy transcends trade

Unlike Trump, however, Biden will not have to outbid competitors in a primary election with threats against China. Biden also has a personal relationship with Xi that dates back to his vice-presidency, one that will surely be preferred in Beijing to Trump’s unpredictability and pettiness – questions surrounding Trump’s Nato commitment and stance on Taiwan notwithstanding.

If Beijing had a say in the US presidential election, it would probably prefer to see Biden remain in power and spare itself four more years of Trump.

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But there is a scenario in which China wouldn’t have to deal with either men – and if the Democrats want to keep the White House, they should consider it seriously.

While the election outcome is anyone’s guess, recent polls show that America doesn’t want either Biden or Trump to run again. Despite Biden’s successes, his approval ratings remain disappointing and, to many people’s surprise, he was tied with Trump in one hypothetical rematch.

The danger that Trump could move back into the White House, despite all his legal issues, the alleged incitement of a violent insurrection and his general disdain for the rule of law and democracy, is very real.

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The Democrats are rightfully worried. But, what if someone other than Biden were on the ticket? While it would be an unusual decision to remove the nomination of a sitting president – or ask him to give it up – the circumstances could warrant unusual measures, particularly if preventing Trump from becoming president again is the overarching objective.

The answer to this conundrum could be California governor Gavin Newsom, who has been campaigning for Biden lately. His appearance on the national stage has also started chatter about him possibly challenging Biden.

While such a scenario seems far-fetched, Newsom’s presence, including in interviews with Fox News and agreeing to a hypothetical debate with Republican candidate Ron DeSantis, suggest he is inclined to establish his profile beyond California. The timing, considering Biden’s approval ratings struggles, is also interesting.

California governor Gavin Newsom speaks in Sacramento in January. Photo: TNS

There’s a solid case to be made for Newsom. Not only is he the party’s future but he would be able to command the anti-Trump coalition votes, and those votes Biden struggles to win, that is, independents and “never-Trump” Republicans.

Newsom, a pragmatist on economic matters, would be a fresh face on the international scene. To an extent, he would be able to reset what has occurred between Beijing and Washington over the past eight years. There is no history between Xi and Newsom, which could allow both sides to establish a more positive, perhaps even blossoming, relationship.

Moreover, Newsom’s stance on China has largely been positive. As mayor of San Francisco, he lauded his city’s relationship with China and was “proud” of it, while as governor, he has advocated for even deeper ties between California and China on climate change and clean energy.

For China, a Newsom run could be a blessing in disguise. And, for Democrats, it could be a way to fend off Trump once more.

Thomas O. Falk is a UK-based independent journalist and political analyst