How China can stop Pakistan from worsening Afghanistan’s humanitarian crisis

Pakistan’s deportation of over a million Afghans threatens to overwhelm Afghanistan’s struggling economy and aid agencies, and put lives in danger
China, which has a strategic interest in the region’s stability, should pressure Pakistan to reverse or delay its decision and respect international law

Chris Fitzgerald

Published: 3:30pm, 6 Nov 2023

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The Pakistan-Afghanistan border is witnessing one of the largest forced expulsions of people since the second world war. Pakistan’s decision to deport over a million Afghans threatens to worsen Afghanistan’s humanitarian crisis and risks thousands of lives. But China may hold the key to a solution.

Pakistan announced on October 3 that all illegal migrants and asylum seekers had 28 days to leave or face deportation. While not directly mentioned, Afghans make up the vast majority of undocumented people in Pakistan and are seen as the target of the decision.

By the November 1 deadline, more than 60,000 Afghans had been deported. Those remaining have reported coercion to leave by Pakistani officials, and harassment, beatings, extortion and detention.

The Taliban condemned the move, demanding that Pakistan not “deport Afghans by force and without preparation” and that it should consider “good neighbourliness, Islamic brotherhood and humanity”.

Last month, the United Nations warned of “serious implications” and said the “forced repatriation of Afghan nationals has the potential to result in severe human rights violations, including the separation of families and deportation of minors”.

The sudden decision came after suicide bombings in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces killed at least 57. No group has claimed responsibility but Islamabad appears fed up by the rise of Islamic extremism after decades of harbouring refugees from its troublesome neighbour.

04:02

‘What can we do?’: Afghans forced to leave as Pakistan starts rounding up undocumented migrants

UN data last month showed there were about 4 million Afghans in Pakistan, including 700,000 who fled after the Taliban regained power. An estimated 1.7 million were in Pakistan illegally. Pakistan is one of the world’s largest refugee hosts with over 1.3 million registered refugees, 99 per cent of whom are Afghans.

Many Afghans have been in Pakistan for years, even decades. Most have no means of seeking asylum as there is either no avenue or because they lack correct documentation. This has left them facing economic hardship with no access to health, education or legal services.

But even this is preferable to returning to Afghanistan and one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. World Vision reports that over 29 million Afghan people require humanitarian aid, 15 million face acute food insecurity while almost a million children under five need life-saving treatment from starvation and malnutrition.

Recent earthquakes have worsened matters, killing more than 2,000 and displacing many. An additional 1.7 million Afghans would overwhelm an already poor, hungry country and lead to more suffering.

03:04

Displaced Afghans stay outdoors as another strong earthquake hits Afghanistan

Another problem is the Taliban. Its regime brutally represses women, the LGBTQ community and ethnic minorities, and has targeted those associated with the former US-backed administration. Many who fled the Taliban in 2021 face harassment, persecution or death on their return.

Amnesty International echoed these concerns last week, saying women and girls in particular would be “in grave danger as they would be exposed to persecution and other serious human rights violations”.

It added: “A significant number of Afghan refugees including journalists, human rights defenders, women protesters, artists, and former government officials and security personnel would also be at imminent risk of persecution and repression by the Taliban, if forced to return to Afghanistan.”

03:20

Afghan refugees reluctantly return to Taliban rule amid deadline to leave Pakistan

But Pakistan remains steadfast and claims 200,000 have since voluntarily returned to Afghanistan. Pakistan’s acting interior minister Sarfraz Bugti said: “We are going door-to-door, and we have done geofencing. We will detain and deport them.”

This couldn’t have come at a worse time for the Taliban. While the Afghan economy remains in poor shape by global standards, the Taliban has managed to stabilise the exchange rate, collect revenue and grow exports.

The Taliban has also got closer to China. In September, China became the first country to name a new ambassador since the Taliban takeover. Kabul wants to join China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which can open up the resource-rich country to much-needed investment.

06:40

How 2 years of Taliban rule have transformed Afghanistan back to the past

The influx of over a million desperate people threatens to undo these modest economic gains and destabilise the country. This will be a concern for Beijing, which has taken a risk in strengthening ties with the Taliban and has been clear that it desires a stable, safe place to invest in.

But China can play a role in solving this crisis. Beijing has the diplomatic clout and leverage to pressure Islamabad to either cease or delay the expulsions.

In public, Beijing could remind Pakistan of its obligations under the 1951 Refugee Convention to take in people seeking asylum and not return them to harm. In private, it could remind Pakistan of its generous financial help earlier this year in preventing the economy from defaulting.

China approach offers hope to Afghanistan

At worst, a reprieve would give the Taliban time to prepare for an influx of over a million people and allow international aid organisations to call for more donor funds. It would go a long way towards preventing a brittle Afghanistan from being overwhelmed.

Pakistan has made a reactionary and inhumane decision that threatens to cause a humanitarian catastrophe. Livelihoods will be lost, and many will be sent back to a future without hope or into the dangerous hands of the Taliban.

An opportunity has come for China to play a leadership role and it should take it. Beijing should pressure Pakistan to reverse or delay its decision and respect international law. Not only would this safeguard vulnerable people and save lives, but also allow China to show moral leadership in a region it deems strategically important.

With expulsions under way, there is no time to spare. Leadership needs to be shown or Afghanistan risks falling into the abyss.

Chris Fitzgerald is a freelance journalist and project coordinator for the Platform for Peace and Humanity’s Central Asia Programme