China food security: critical grain harvest sees first summer drop in 5 years, autumn dip may follow
- Unless China can sow some luck this autumn and avoid inclement weather such as extreme heat and excessive rain, annual grain output will likely fall short of goals
- Dramatic weather changes could force China to consider alternative approaches to shoring up nation’s food security – some suggest breeding more resistant crops with genetics
China’s grain output for the year is not looking good, as the summer yield is down and more extreme weather looms, analysts warn.
Particularly worrisome is that the autumn harvest, which accounts for 75 per cent of China’s whole-year grain production, as they say it is at risk of being lighter due to adverse weather – the primary factor blamed for the first decline in China’s summer harvest since 2018.
The country has already faced rarely seen bouts of bad weather this summer, and the subsequently higher risks including drought, flooding and less plant growth, said Huo Xuexi, a professor of agricultural economics from Northwest A&F University.
“I’m afraid that maintaining grain production this year at last year’s level would be difficult, given the risks of climatic damage projected by domestic and international meteorologists,” he said.
Rare rains claim millions of tonnes of Chinese wheat right before harvest
As of last year, China’s annual grain output had remained above 650 million tonnes for eight consecutive years amid its strong emphasis on food security in the face of global uncertainties. Beijing aims to at least maintain this level and raise it to 700 million tonnes by 2025, according to the central government’s five-year plan for agriculture released last year.
But already this summer, China has recorded the most days with temperatures at 35 degrees Celsius (95 degrees Fahrenheit) or above since at least 1961, the National Climate Centre said in a WeChat post earlier this month.
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Farmers in China rush to harvest wheat after heavy rains damage crops
Seedlings in parts of northern and central China have shown signs of weak growth due to heatwaves since late last month, “bringing grave challenges to autumn harvest”, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs warned in an article earlier this month.
It said it responded by instructing local governments how to mitigate or reduce the impact on farming.
Zhu Zhen, a researcher from the Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology under the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that extreme temperatures, whether too low or too high, would harm crop growth and lead to poor yields.
“We may be able to alleviate droughts and floods, but little can be done to help crops fight extreme temperatures, except for breeding new species more resilient to heat or cold,” he said.
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And in this regard, “there have been achievements in the laboratory, but to widely apply them still takes time”, he said.
Huo said China needs to make improvements in forecasting the weather and climate patterns, so people can better prepare for inclement weather.
“In Shaanxi, which is a production base for apples, farmers still endure losses due to forecasts that are not timely and precise enough,” he said.
China completed its first national survey on natural disaster risks in February after three years of investigations, assessing the impact of climate change on human health and food production.
More than 70 per cent of its cities, with more than half of its population, are located in areas considered to be at relatively high risk of natural disasters, be they meteorological or geological – China Emergency Management News, under the Ministry of Emergency Management, said in May.
