“The consumption voucher scheme has stimulated the market, which has become more vibrant,” Au said, referring to the government’s HK$5,000 coupons initiative to boost local spending.

“I believe this will help support the ongoing recovery of consumption-related industries. It will also help the recovery of the job market and reduce the unemployment rate.”

But he said even if annual GDP growth pushed towards the upper end of the revised forecast for 2021, it would still be about 2 per cent lower than in 2018, before the recession took hold.

He warned risk factors threatening growth included the global spread of the more infectious Delta variant of the coronavirus, worsening China-US relations, geopolitical tensions and changes to the monetary policy of major central banks.

The government previously projected that full-year GDP would grow by between 3.5 per cent and 5.5 per cent, compared with a 6.1 per cent decline last year – the worst on record.

In the first quarter of 2021, Hong Kong swung from recession to its fastest economic growth – a revised figure of 8 per cent – in more than a decade.

That V-shaped rebound followed a record 9.1 per cent contraction in GDP from the same period last year, when the health crisis broke out in the city.

The first three months of the year also marked an end to six straight quarters of economic decline stretching back to the second half of 2019.

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Average property prices have also edged up in recent months, with June’s figure just 1 per cent lower than the historic high set in May 2019 and more than double the 1997 peak level.

Home-buying also became less affordable in the second quarter, with the ratio of mortgage payments to median household income rising to 75 per cent for a 484 sq ft flat. The average level between 2001 and 2020 was 47 per cent.

Official statistics published on Thursday showed that nearly 90,000 residents had left Hong Kong over the past year, resulting in a 1.2 per cent drop in the city’s population.

The decline to 7.39 million amid a wave of emigration following Beijing’s imposition of a national security law in June last year was the largest since the first signs of a shrinking population emerged in mid-2020.

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The latest annual report from the Mandatory Provident Fund (MPF) Schemes Authority revealed the total sum of early fund withdrawals on the grounds of permanent departure from Hong Kong last year reached a record HK$6.6 billion (US$850 million), a 27 per cent jump from the previous financial year.

But Au attributed the decline to reductions in the numbers of domestic helpers, foreigners and mainland Chinese migrants coming to Hong Kong to work and live because of the pandemic, as well as last year’s relatively low birth rate.

In 2020, the city registered more deaths than births for the first time since records began.

Au argued the impact of the MPF withdrawals was minimal because the sums were dwarfed by more than HK$300 billion flowing into the city over the past year.

“Much economic data, including population numbers and labour market figures, is distorted because of the pandemic,” he said, adding the actual situation could only be properly assessed once the coronavirus crisis had abated.

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He added no concrete data on emigration was available yet.

ING Bank Greater China economist Iris Pang said any impact on GDP from the recent wave of emigration would probably be insignificant.

But she said the population drop would reduce private consumption to some degree, with the risks of a longer-term impact hingeing on whether the trend of departures continued.

Pang said the main factors affecting the economy were the vibrancy of the local export market, the degree to which social-distancing measures remained in force and the level of border restrictions going forward.

“We have to pay attention to border reopening plans because it could increase the city’s population,” she said, pointing to the prospect of luring talent from the mainland.

“When the population increases again, the figure for private consumption would rise then.”

Simon Lee Siu-po, co-director of the international business and Chinese enterprise programme at Chinese University, agreed that tens of thousands of residents leaving would not expose the economy to significant risks.

“When the pandemic stabilises, there will be people coming in. Many mainlanders still want to come. Foreigners too,” he said.